Tuesday, 30 December 2008

War in Gaza

Collective punishment doesnt work. This is one of the reasons why we are, where we are. The militant minority will have the upper hand over the non militant kind when people are starving or there is no electricity. Lacking basic services and food and medical supplies creates a sense of urgency. In that sense of urgency it is easier for the militant hard line views to take over the moderates.

Not letting medical supplies and food into Gaza, didnt stop the rockets it just made it worse.

You cant subdue people by force alone.. Come on, we should have learned that from Iraq or other countless examples from history.

You need economic incentives, and good ones. Make sure they dont get corrupted as in so many cases involving the recent history of the Palestinian arabs. So far, in Israel only Bibi FullofEgo Netanyahu mentioned this, as far as I know.
You need to establish trade links. If kids in Gaza can make more money by selling vegetables or other Gazan produce to Israel then by digging tunnels, you will have achieved something that couldnt be achieved so far by bombings.

Israel has a strong army.. and when you have a hammer you see nails everywhere.

That is not to say, that I disagree with the current military actions in Gaza. I dont think its unjust or disproporionate. It is self-defense !
Hamas will not stop arming itself. It will go for whatever rockets it can get its hands on and will target ANYONE and EVERYONE inside Israel. If Hamas had as much firepower as Israel, I would not be sitting here at my desk in Tel Aviv. I would be burried in the Mediterranean Sea already..

Nasrallah and Co. aka Hezbollah (G0d's Army) and their backers
They will not get involved. They are diverting the attention away from a possible perception that they should try to help Hamas, maybe by tying down some of the Israeli army. They focus the attention on Hizballah possibly being the next in line to get attacked. I dont think its the case though.. . Maybe no orders from Tehran. Could it be, that with a financial crisis in Russia and Ahmadinejad weaker by the day, the price of oil at $40 instead of $140 there is simply not much spirit in Mother Russia and Persia to go on being the naughty kid ?
Maybe this economic crisis and related fal in the oil price will do one good thing, rob rogue regimes of their oil based incomes ?

The rockets with timers pointed at Israel.
This story is dodgy.. This is some kind of con. It could have been Israel, but then the logic would have been to attack Lebanon hours after thats discovered. It didnt happen..
Or.. it could have been the Lebanese governement, which tried to show that "We are good guardians of our borders, and even are here to protect the Jewish Dogs.. sorry.. our Israeli Cousins".
I read somewhere that there is an arms deal between Lebanon and the U.S. for the sale of cool goodies like attack helicopters. Maybe Lebanon wanted to show that its on the American-Israeli side by planting and then discovering those rockets?
The most unlikely version is Hezballah planting them. If those rockets go off, they would have been held responsible without any doubts anyway. They also have the self-confidence to stand behind what they do. The number of rockets was also tiny, a few rockets.. what damage would that have really done?
It was either meant to be a provocation or those launchers were meant to be found.
Could Hamas have gone through all the trouble of planting those self-timed rockets there somehow, hoping to draw the Hizballah into the conflict ?? This sounds like, right out of a Tom Clancy book .. 

Game theory.
Do you remember the film Ransom, with Mel Gibson?(he is probably on his way to enlist himself as a spokesperson for Hamas - given his love and devotion for the Jewish people)
Anyway.. in Ransom Mel Gibson's child gets kidnapped and then our Mel goes on the tele in a live show, with a bagload of cash that he offers to give to whoever brings him the kidnappers.
Brilliant strategic move, mind you: this is what Israel did as well.

After being the defensive one in the game for years, and acting always in response to whatever Hamas or Hezballah did (rockets or ceasefire). This time Israel went and hit hard to claim the offensive ground. Are they sacrificing Gilad Shalit along the way? Well if they hit hard enough, it will create a difficult choice for Hamas, for hurting Gilad will mean a green light for turning Gaza into a parking lot. So maybe the strategy is right. They could even force Hamas to give Gilad back as part of a ceasefire agreement.
Of course, there is a not so minor issue, international support. This time however it seems that either Israel prepared the ground for whats happening now, and Hamas just doesnt get a lot of sympathy from anyone except Hugo Chavez and maybe Mel Gibson.

So all in all, Israel went and after years of being the clumsy elephant in the china shop, showed who's guvena'
I have my money on Israel this time..

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